Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
