Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
